As we enter the week of January 27 – January 31, 2025, the financial markets are poised for significant movements, with major economic data releases and central bank decisions expected to impact market sentiment. For gold traders, this week presents multiple opportunities as inflation, labor market, and economic growth data come into focus. Here’s an analysis of the key events and how they could influence gold prices.
Monday, January 27, 2025
New Home Sales (8:00 PM)
- Forecast: 669K
- Previous: 664K
Impact on Gold: Strong new home sales figures reflect a healthy housing market and economic strength, which may strengthen the U.S. dollar and pressure gold prices. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data could raise concerns about economic growth, supporting gold as a safe-haven asset.
Tuesday, January 28, 2025
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (6:30 PM)
- Forecast: 0.3%
- Previous: -0.2%
Impact on Gold: Core durable goods orders indicate business investment trends. Strong data could boost the dollar and weigh on gold prices, while weak data might support gold as investors seek safety amid economic uncertainty.
Durable Goods Orders m/m (6:30 PM)
- Forecast: 0.1%
- Previous: -1.2%
Impact on Gold: Similar to core orders, broader durable goods data reflect the state of manufacturing and economic activity. Weak results could increase gold’s appeal.
CB Consumer Confidence (7:00 PM)
- Forecast: 105.9
- Previous: 104.7
Impact on Gold: Higher consumer confidence typically strengthens the U.S. dollar, reducing gold’s appeal. A decline in confidence could signal economic uncertainty, supporting gold prices.
Richmond Manufacturing Index (7:00 PM)
- Forecast: -8
- Previous: -10
Impact on Gold: Improved manufacturing activity could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold. Weak manufacturing data may support gold as a hedge against economic challenges.
Crude Oil Inventories (8:00 PM)
- Previous: -1.0M
Impact on Gold: Changes in crude oil inventories can indirectly influence inflation expectations. A draw in inventories might raise inflation fears, supporting gold, while higher inventories could weigh on gold prices.
Wednesday, January 29, 2025
- No significant releases
Thursday, January 30, 2025
Federal Funds Rate (12:00 AM)
- Forecast: 4.50%
- Previous: 4.50%
Impact on Gold: If the Federal Reserve maintains the rate as expected, the impact on gold may be limited. A dovish tone or unexpected rate cut could boost gold, while a hawkish stance may pressure gold prices.
FOMC Statement and Press Conference (12:30 AM)
Impact on Gold: The tone of the FOMC statement will be crucial. A dovish stance signaling concerns about economic growth could support gold, while a hawkish outlook may strengthen the dollar and weigh on gold.
Advance GDP q/q (6:30 PM)
- Forecast: 2.7%
- Previous: 3.1%
Impact on Gold: Slower GDP growth could weaken the dollar, boosting gold. Stronger-than-expected GDP figures would likely pressure gold prices.
Unemployment Claims (6:30 PM)
- Forecast: 221K
- Previous: 223K
Impact on Gold: Higher unemployment claims may indicate labor market weakness, supporting gold prices. Lower claims suggest economic strength, which could pressure gold.
Advance GDP Price Index q/q (6:30 PM)
- Forecast: 2.5%
- Previous: 1.9%
Impact on Gold: A rising price index signals inflation, which could support gold as a hedge. Lower inflation expectations might reduce gold’s appeal.
Pending Home Sales m/m (8:00 PM)
- Forecast: -1.0%
- Previous: 2.2%
Impact on Gold: Weak pending home sales could signal economic concerns, increasing demand for gold. Stronger data may pressure gold prices.
Friday, January 31, 2025
Core PCE Price Index m/m (6:30 PM)
- Forecast: 0.2%
- Previous: 0.1%
Impact on Gold: The Core PCE Price Index is a key inflation gauge for the Fed. Higher inflation could support gold, while weaker data may pressure prices.
Employment Cost Index q/q (6:30 PM)
- Forecast: 0.9%
- Previous: 0.8%
Impact on Gold: Rising employment costs may increase inflation concerns, supporting gold. Lower costs could weaken gold prices.
Chicago PMI (7:45 PM)
- Forecast: 40.6
- Previous: 36.9
Impact on Gold: A PMI below 50 signals contraction. Weak data could support gold, while strong data may weigh on prices.
Key Takeaways for Gold Traders
This week’s events present a mix of opportunities and risks for gold traders:
- Bullish for Gold:
- Weak GDP or durable goods data.
- High unemployment claims or inflation data.
- Dovish Fed tone or unexpected rate cuts.
- Bearish for Gold:
- Strong GDP or durable goods data.
- Low unemployment claims or inflation concerns.
- Hawkish Fed tone or rate hikes.
Conclusion
The week of January 27 – January 31, 2025, is packed with impactful events, particularly the FOMC meeting and GDP data releases. These events could set the tone for gold prices, introducing significant volatility. Traders should closely monitor economic indicators and central bank statements to adapt their strategies accordingly.
Stay prepared and trade wisely!
